MR. CLAYPOOL GOES TO THE CPS: GOING AFTER THE BUREAUCRACY…AS ONLY A BUREAUCRAT CAN

1/25/16

Forest Claypool is Rahm Emanuel’s man at the Chicago Public Schools (“CPS”), just as he was Richard M. Daley’s man at the Chicago Transit Authority (“CTA”).   Mr. Claypool, a lifelong bureaucrat who is well thought of by other denizens of what passes for local government in and around Chicago, is charged with reducing the bureaucracy and cutting out the fat at the CPS in an effort to save the schools from bankruptcy and/or get the state to bail out this plaything of local pols called the Chicago Public Schools.

One of Mr. Claypool’s first moves in tilting at this particular windmill was to create two new positions, to wit…

“Director of CPS’ Project Management Office”

And

“Executive Director of Change Management”

and putting two of his old cronies, Carol J. Rubin and Sally Csontos in these positions.

Now, I know nothing about the qualifications of Ms. Rubin and Ms.  Csontos.  For all I know, they are super-bureaucrats and wonderful people.   And one can say with certainty that they play their politics correctly; how else do people get jobs that pay $170,000 and $160,000 respectively in a school district that is broke?   But I digress; the qualifications of Ms. Rubin and Ms. Csontos are not the point here.

The point is to ask the question…

Does Mr. Claypool see the irony in combatting bureaucracy by hiring a “Director of CPS’ Project Management Office” and an “Executive Director of Change Management”?

You see the irony.  I see the irony.  I doubt that Mr. Claypool, or Mr. Emanuel, for that matter, sees the irony of creating posts with gobbledygook names that reek of bureaucratic nonsense and that sound like something right out of Alice In Wonderland…all in an effort to combat bureaucracy.  It’s as if Mr. Claypool is fighting bureaucracy by creating more bureaus yet has no idea why such an approach is ridiculous on its face.  But, after all, how could Mr. Claypool, a lifelong bureaucrat, possibly see the irony in this latest trip down the rabbit hole in which our local bureaucrats and pols have buried themselves?

 See my two books, The Chairman, A Novel of Big City Politics and The Chairman’s Challenge, A Continuing Novel of Big City Politics, for further illumination on how things work in Chicago and Illinois politics. 

THE RED LIGHT OF CLOUT GOES ON TRIAL IN CHICAGO: TWO LONG HELD THEORIES ON THE REDFLEX CAPER

1/17/16

Now that the Redlfex/John Bills red light camera trial is underway, yours truly feels compelled to remind his readers that he has been following this story since the Chicago Tribune broke it in October, 2012.   In my first post on the story, dated 10/18/12 (which I have reproduced below as an appendix of sorts, to my last post on the issue, dated 8/21/14, also reproduced, and linked, below), I concluded, in a rather shameless plug for my books, with

A minor figure in this drama loses his job for accepting $500 in accommodations from a city vendor.   The vendor keeps its current contract but can’t bid on a new one, though the city Inspector General is investigating the case. 

It looks like there is more to this story and that there are more important people involved than Messrs. Bills and O’Malley.   How likely is it that larger heads will roll?   For a hint, take a look at my two novels of Chicago politics, The Chairman, A Novelof Big City Politics and The Chairman’s Challenge, A Continuing Novel of BigCity Politics.

In a 5/18/14 post, also reproduced and linked below, I outlined my by then general theory on this case, which remains intact.   Since this theory is outlined extensively in the 5/8/14 post below, I won’t repeat it here but will encapsulate it, to wit…

John Bills, for all his talents and abilities, was not big enough to steer a 9 figure contract to anybody, let alone an out of state (out of the country, really) outfit with few, if any, ties to the city.  So either…

·         Someone higher up was in on it.   As I said in the 8/21/14 post…

As I’ve said ad nauseam, going back to the dawn of the Redflex caper, if anything has the potential to bring down some very big people in Chicago, it is this scandal.  Clearly, the feds aren’t going through all this time and expense to put John Bills, a deputy managing commissioner of the Chicago Transportation Department and a precinct captain (albeit a very good and important precinct captain) for Mike Madigan’s 13^th Ward Regular Democratic Organization, away.  

This “someone else was in on it” seems to be the operative theory among denizens of the Chicago media.

Or…

·         A more intriguing, and, as far as I have seen, unique to yours truly, theory…John Bills used his considerable persuasive powers, as demonstrated by his many years as a star precinct captain in Mike Madigan’s organization, to convince the Redflex suits that he did have the power to steer such a huge contract.   What did the Redflex people know?   They were from out of town, naïve concerning the ways of the politics of our town.   They hadn’t read my books.  Maybe Mr. Bills convinced them that a deputy managing commissioner had the kind of clout they were looking for.

Sure, it took, er, courage, on Mr. Bills part to pull off such an act, if this second theory is true.   What if, after his taking all that consideration from Redflex, Redflex lost the contract?   But Mr. Bills is no dummy; he probably had determined that Redflex was highly likely to get the contract anyway.  But, more importantly, if Redflex didn’t get the contract, so what?   What was Redflex going to do…sue him?   I can hear it now… “Your honor, we bribed this guy because he promised he was our man to get the contract.   Then we didn’t get it.  He owes us and we demand payment.”   The idea is absurd.   So what were they going to do?   Threaten Mr. Bills?   Someone like John Bills has probably been threatened by scarier people than a bunch of suits in Arizona.

At any rate, enjoy the below posts.   The first is my 5/18/14 post, which goes into greater detail on my still operative theory.   The second is my 8/21/14 post, my last on this issue.   Attached to that is my 10/18/12 post, my first on this issue.  The many others I posted between these two have been omitted for brevity.  And, in yet another shameless plug, if you want to gain some searing insight into how things are done around Chicago, see my two books, The Chairman, A Novel of Big City Politics and The Chairman’s Challenge, A Continuing Novel of Big City Politics.   The people at Redflex probably wished they saved themselves perhaps millions, and maybe some hard time, by spending a few bucks on my books.

http://www.rantlifestyle.com/2014/05/18/redflex-could-john-bills-have-pulled-this-off-nearly-alone/

REDFLEX:  COULD JOHN BILLS HAVE PULLED THIS OFF (NEARLY) ALONE?

5/18/14

Few people have written as extensively or for as long as I have on the Redflex scandal and the man currently in the middle, John Bills, former deputy managing commissioner of the Chicago Transportation Department, and, more importantly and perhaps saliently in this case, a precinct captain the 13^th Ward Democratic Organization run by the guy who runs the show in Illinois politics, House Speaker Mike Madigan.  See my piece of a few days ago, THE REDFLEX SAGA:  THE GIFT THAT KEEPS ON GIVING FOR CHICAGO POLITICAL JUNKIES and the posts to which it will refer you.

My, and most people’s, operative theory is that Mr. Bills didn’t have the clout to muscle Chicago’s red light camera contract to Redflex; recipients of hundred million dollar plus contracts don’t get decided by deputy managing commissioners. Thus, even though Mr. Bills is alleged to have accepted hundreds of thousands of dollars in bribes to grease the Redflex contract, somebody higher up, and I don’t mean mysterious “consultant” Marty O’Malley, another 13^th Ward luminary, had to be involved.

As we learn more about Mr. Bills, however, an alternative theory comes to mind.  

It’s difficult to become, and even more difficult to remain, a captain in Mike Madigan’s 13^th Ward Organization.   The more highly educated, the “better” types around town (the type of people who form Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s core of support, for instance) might scoff at the likes of Mr. Bills.  Why, he isn’t a lawyer or an investment banker; he didn’t even go to college.  He doesn’t live in a trendy neighborhood on the north side; what could he possibly know?   But Mr. Bills and his former ward soldiers are smart, tough guys who work very hard to get out the vote and do what needs to be done, by just about any means necessary.  They might not belong the right clubs, in the estimation of Emanuel enthusiasts, but, for them, belonging to the 13^th Ward (or any number of other ward organizations) Democratic Organization, and thus having access to the perks that go with membership, will do.   For readers of my novels, think of the fictional Jack Salewski.

Among this group of elite street level politicos, Mr. Bills was apparently among the best.   He not only carried his precinct handily, he helped (Some say always for a price, but that’s not the point here.) his fellow captains carry their precincts.  He raised money prodigiously for the Ward Organization, even if by leaning on those in his employ at the city.  His fellow captains, if reports are to be believed, may think Mr. Bills had the tendency to tell a tall tale and exaggerate his connections and achievements, but nobody had anything but the greatest respect for his ability at his job, which was, at its core, to produce for Mike Madigan.   That Mr. Bills started out of high school as a street lamp repairman and wound up as a deputy managing commissioner making nearly $140,000 is testimony to his ability.

It’s not crazy to postulate that a guy with Mr. Bills’ ability, his gift of gab, his reported affability and ability to tell an engaging, if exaggerated tale, might have been able to convince the people at Redflex that he indeed had what he didn’t have:  the genuine power to steer the red light camera contract to whomever could come up with enough largesse to satisfy John Bills.   Remember, the Redflex people were, and are, from out of town.  They hadn’t read my books and don’t know how things work in this town.  Yeah, maybe they’re smart, but perhaps they are only book smart and not street smart like John Bills.   Maybe he could indeed convince these ingénues that he was the guy they had to mollify, he was the guy they had to take care of, to grease this contract through.

Notice my extensive use of the words “maybe” and “perhaps.”  Yours truly is certainly not arguing that this case stops at John Bills, that there are no higher-ups involved.  I still think someone higher up has to be involved.  But the more I read and hear about John Bills, the more I think that it is unwise to completely dismiss the possibility that John Bills single-handedly, or with the help of only Marty O’Malley, pulled the wool over the gullible eyes of the big shots at Redflex.

Further, while it is hard to admit this, I would, in a perverse way, applaud such an outcome.  As a fellow South Sider (Note:  You can take the boy out of the South Side, but you can’t take the South side out of the boy.  Never, by the way, have truer words been uttered.), though a nearly completely apolitical one, I would find it somehow laudable that a street guy like John Bills could have hornswoggled the suits at Redflex.

See my two books, The Chairman, A Novel of Big City Politics and The Chairman’s Challenge, A Continuing Novel of Big City Politics, for further illumination on how things work in Chicago and Illinois politics. 

MY LATEST…AND MY FIRST…POSTS ON REDFLEX AND JOHN BILLS:

http://mightyquinnpolitics.blogspot.com/2014/08/the-redflex-saga-what-do-marty-omalley.html

THE REDFLEX SAGA:  WHAT DO MARTY O’MALLEY AND A CANARY HAVE IN COMMON?

8/21/14

The man whom I referred to as “mysterious “consultant” Marty O’Malley” has decided to cooperate with the feds in their ongoing investigation of Redflex’s nine figure red light camera contract with the city of Chicago.  (See my posts on this issue going back to October, 2012; the first, on the now defunct Rant Political, is reproduced below, following this piece.)   Mr. O’Malley was indicted in connection with l’affaire Redflex earlier this month, along with former Redflex USA CEO Karen Finley.  John Bills, the former city official most intimately connected with the Redflex affair, was also indicted with Ms. Finley and Mr. O’Malley; in Mr. Bills’ case, that was his second indictment in connection with the case.   Mr. O’Malley, who faces five years in the hoosegow, is expected to plead guilty as part of his deal with the feds.

As I’ve said ad nauseam, going back to the dawn of the Redflex caper, if anything has the potential to bring down some very big people in Chicago, it is this scandal.  Clearly, the feds aren’t going through all this time and expense to put John Bills, a deputy managing commissioner of the Chicago Transportation Department and a precinct captain (albeit a very good and important precinct captain) for Mike Madigan’s 13^th Ward Regular Democratic Organization, away.   And it would seem that a deputy managing commissioner is not in a position to have much influence over a contract the size of Redflex’s red light camera contract, at least not in Chicago.  But do read my 5/18/14 post (REDFLEX:  COULD JOHN BILLS HAVE PULLED THIS OFF (NEARLY) ALONE?, Rant Lifestyle); in it, I outline a plausible scenario under which Mr. Bills could have acted alone:  perhaps Mr. Bills, a man of powerful persuasion skills and, reportedly, figurative cajones the size of church bells could have convinced the naïve suits at Redflex that yes, indeed, he did have the power to make things happen.  The smart money, though, has to be on Mr. Bills being something of a pissant in this whole caper.  The feds seem to think so and would like to get to the real decision makers.

So Mr. Bills seems to be the ball game here.  Does he risk going away for a long, long time with both Mr. O’Malley and former Redflex Executive VP of sales, Aaron Rosenberg, cooperating against him?   Theoretically, both Mr. Bills and Ms. Finley could go away for life.   What, or who, would a man give in exchange for his life?

A further note, which might not mean anything but is still interesting:

When the first reports of the Redflex tale emerged, the Tribune reported Marty O’Malley was a member at St. Bede Parish, on 82^nd and Kostner (just a few blocks from one of my favorite pizza places, Vito and Nick’s, or Nick & Vito’s, which is easier to say but not quite official.  I have to say that, based on our last few visits to this south side institution, Vito & Nick’s is a little off its game; perhaps it has something to do with the place’s having been on Diners, Drive-Ins, and Dives, but I digress.), as was and, supposedly is, John Bills.   These two guys living in the same parish, as I explained in a lesson the social mores of my species (i.e., south side Irish Catholic), made Mr. O’Malley’s claim that he didn’t know John Bills until they started working on the Redflex deal highly suspect.  Now it is reported that Mr. O’Malley lives in Worth, a suburb several miles southwest of the 13^th Ward, outside the borders both of  St. Bede and, obviously, of Mike Madigan’s 13^th Ward.   Does this give Mr. O’Malley’s “I didn’t know the guy until we started working on Redflex” argument any more credibility?   Maybe.

But maybe not.   Worth is clearly not in Mike Madigan’s ward and is not in his 22^nd state House district.  But that doesn’t mean that Mr. O’Malley, though living in Worth, is not a parishioner at St. Bede.  We, for instance, belong to a parish in my old neighborhood even though we don’t live anywhere near the church.  Perhaps Mr. O’Malley once lived in St. Bede, has moved to Worth, but prefers to go to church, and maybe remain otherwise active, in his old parish.  This is very common behavior among us south side Irish types. 

More saliently for this case, Mr. O’Malley doesn’t live in the 13^th Ward but is active, at least financially, in its politics; he, according to the Tribune’s story back in October, 2012, admits to contributing $1,000 in 2007, $1,500 in 2009. and another $1,500 in 2010 to Mr. Madigan’s political operations.  Remember, too, that Mr. Madigan’s influence emanates throughout the whole state, but its intensity increases as one nears his 13^th Ward base of operations.  He is especially entrenched in the southwest suburbs, like Worth and Oak Lawn, where many of his former 13^th Ward and 22^nd District constituents and their adult children have moved as part of the white flight that has characterized the southwest side of the city over the last few decades.

Given their possible, though admittedly stretched, parish connection and their much more likely 13^th Ward connection, it remains highly doubtful that Mr. O’Malley’s contention that he didn’t know John Bills until they started working together on Redflex is true.  Now, the Tribune is describing Mr. O’Malley as Mr. Bills’ “longtime friend,” so who knows where this perhaps trivial aspect of the story is going?   It has been a long time, one supposes, since the Redflex contract was won in 2005 and even longer since the maneuvering began for this contract.  But from the perspective of guys the vintages of Messrs. Bills and O’Malley (53 and 74, respectively) and yours truly (somewhere between those two), nine or so years seems like the blink of an eye.

NOTE:   WE HAVE SINCE LEARNED, AT THE BILLS TRIAL, THAT MESSRS. BILLS AND O’MALLEY MET NOT IN CONNECTION WITH 13^th WARD POLITICS OR THOUGH THE NORMAL COURSE OF PARISH CAMARADERIE.  ACCORDING TO MR. O’MALLEY’S TESTIMONY, THEY MET AT AN ALCOHOLICS ANONYMOUS MEETING.   SINCE IT’S IMPERTINENT TO ASSUME THAT MR. O’MALLEY WAS PERJURING HIMSELF, LET’S ASSUME THAT’S TRUE.  THAT ASSUMPTION DOES LITTLE, IF ANYTHING, TO MODIFY THE CASE OR MY THINKING ON IT.   MQ 1/17/16

See my two books, The Chairman, A Novel of Big City Politics and The Chairman’s Challenge, A Continuing Novel of Big City Politics, for further illumination on how things work in Chicago and Illinois politics. 

MY FIRST POST ON THE REDFLEX DEAL, as promised above:

REDFLEX TRAFFIC SYSTEMS AND CHICAGO POLITICS:   TRUTH NEARLY AS INTRIGUING AS FICTION

10/18/12

The City of Chicago has just scratched the surface in the malodorous dealings of Redflex Traffic Systems, Inc., which supplies the city with red light cameras.   Redflex has been barred from bidding on the city’s upcoming speed camera system after having paid a hotel bill for a city purchasing agent and covered up this indiscretion for two years. Redflex continues to be the vendor for red light cameras for at least the time being.  The background story of Redflex and its dealings with the powers that be in Chicago politics is, typically, murky but, er, interesting.

Redflex Traffic Systems was among several companies bidding for the red light camera contract in Chicago back in the early part of last decade; it won the contract in 2005.   The city official in charge of overseeing the contract was (Get this title; talk about bureaucracy!)  Managing Deputy Commissioner of the Department of Transportation John Bills.  John Bills was, and is, a substantial figure Illinois House Speaker, Chairman of the Illinois Democratic Party, and Ward Committeeman Mike Madigan’s 13^th Ward Regular Democratic Organization, serving as a registrar, or the guy who supervises collection of signatures on candidate petitions, for Mr. Madigan.   One supposes that Mr. Bills is also a precinct captain for Mr. Madigan, but I can’t verify that.   Mr. Bills also lives in St. Bede Parish on the southwest side, which is also Mike Madigan’s parish.   I HAVE SINCE LEARNED THAT MR. MADIGAN DOES NOT LIVE IN ST. BEDE AND THAT MR. BILLS IS, OR WAS, A PRECINCT CAPTAIN FOR MIKE MADIGAN. THIS KNOWLEDGE, TOO, CHANGES LITTLE, IF ANYTHING, REGARDING THE CASE.  MQ, 1/17/16

Redflex just happened to hire as its “consultant” on the red light camera project one Marty O’Malley, who also lives in St. Bede.   Mr. O’Malley claims no affiliation with Mike Madigan’s organization, but admits to contributing $1,000 in 2007, $1,500 in 2009. and another $1,500 in 2010 to Madigan’s political operations.   These contributions were made possible largely by the commissions Mr. O’Malley earned on the red light camera sales, but more on that later.   Mr. O’Malley denies having known Mr. Bills, or Mr. Madigan, before he and Mr. Bills started working together on the camera project.   Mr. O’Malley’s not having known Mr. Bills is plausible, given their ages; Mr. O’Malley is 72, Mr. Bills is 51.   But, for those of you unfamiliar with the mores of the southwest side, one’s parish is a big thing; it often is the center of many of one’s activities, spiritual and otherwise.

As it turns out, Redflex won the contract and Mr. O’Malley, who denies that he used political clout or geographical proximity to either Mr. Bills or Mr. Madigan when interviewing for the consultant job, got a commission of $1,500 per camera, more, according to Mr. O’Malley, than he was expecting.  His total payday came to $570,000.   Some of that, as we learned above, made its way into Mike Madigan’s political coffers.  Mr. Bills denies playing any role in getting Redflex the contract; Mr. Madigan, as far as I know, has not been asked if he had any role in this deal.

There was a small fly in the ointment.  It seems that, according to Mr. Bills, he was in Arizona for a Cubs pre-season game (That a guy from St. Bede would have any interest in a Cub game makes this story suspicious on its face; perhaps Mr. Bills was going to root for the opposition, thus adhering to a proud south side tradition, but I digress.) and didn’t have a hotel reservation.  He called a Redflex executive (Redflex has offices in Phoenix.) to see if he could help out.  Redflex booked him a room in a luxury hotel and the bill somehow never found its way onto Mr. Bills’ credit card, which he didn’t notice for quite some time.   For this minor transgression, and for two years of covering it up, Redflex is banned from bidding on the speed camera contract.   Mr. Bills also retired from his Managing Deputy Commissioner of the Department of Transportation job last summer after 32 years of working for the city.  No one has said Mr. Bills' retirement and the Redflex problems are related, but who’s kidding whom?

And it gets better…

Since these shenanigans have taken place, Mr. Bills has been appointed by “reform” Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle to a position on the Cook County Employee Appeals Board.  This position is part time and pays part time ($35 grand a year), but includes health benefits.  The Appeals Board has long been known as a receptacle for hacks who have somehow run afoul of either the law or the vicissitudes of the voting booth.  Ms. Preckwinkle will not say whether Mike Madigan recommended Mr. Bills for the job.

So…

A minor figure in this drama loses his job for accepting $500 in accommodations from a city vendor.   The vendor keeps its current contract but can’t bid on a new one, though the city Inspector General is investigating the case. 

It looks like there is more to this story and that there are more important people involved than Messrs. Bills and O’Malley.   How likely is it that larger heads will roll?   For a hint, take a look at my two novels of Chicago politics, The Chairman, A Novel of Big City Politics and The Chairman’s Challenge, A Continuing Novel of Big City Politics.

THE STATE OF THE GOP: MORE MUSH FROM THE WIMPS…AND LET CHRISTIE BE CHRISTIE

1/14/16

A few thoughts as we head into the Fox Business GOP debate in Charleston, S.C. tonight.

The GOP establishment’s standard-bearers in the presidential race aren’t man enough to take on Donald Trump directly, unless we consider a few indignant sniffs from colossal failure Jeb Bush about Mr. Trump’s failure to follow the Marquess of Queensberry rules to be confrontation.   Instead, they trot out South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley to attack Mr. Trump in a speech that was supposed to be a response to President Obama’s State of the Union address.   And even Ms. Haley lacked the intestinal fortitude to call out Mr. Trump by name.  Instead, assuming everyone would know whom she was talking about while maintaining plausible deniability, she warned against “the siren call of the angriest voices” and the GOP’s “not always being responsible with their words in terms of extending our tent.”  The latter comment, by the way, is especially curious given that Mr. Trump is the only GOPer who seems to be drawing outsiders into the GOP tent, but I digress.

After the speech, Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, the epitome of the GOP establishment, went out of his way to tell everyone what a terrific job Ms. Haley had done:

“Governor Haley did a great job with her speech, had the pen, and didn’t need much input from us.”

Thus, anyone whose most salient characteristic is not naiveté can safely conclude not only that Ms. Haley’s speech was awful and woefully misdirected, but also that it was written for her by the cowering, milquetoast, lily-livered GOP establishment.

Given the timidity of the other guys who purport to be qualified to defend the free world, can there be much wonder that the rank and file of the GOP and/or just typical fed up voters find it so easy to support someone so otherwise unsupportable as Mr. Trump?   (See WHY TRUMP IS SOPOPULAR WITH THE MIDDLE CLASS, 12/26/15 for more insight on this matter.)

The guy to watch at the debate tonight is Chris Christie.   As my regular readers know, Mr. Christie has been moving up rapidly in the polls as the GOP establishment decides he is the guy who can carry their standard while keeping the Party is a reasonable degree of unity; see CHRIS CHRISTIE GETS “IT”; CAN HE GET THE NOMINATION?, 1/5/16 for greater insight into Mr. Christie’s ascent and prospects.

The great question is whether Mr. Christie comes out firing on all cylinders, guns ablazin’, both barrels firing…or whether he decides it’s time to start playing the “statesman” and cower in the corner with the likes of Jeb Bush for fear of alienating the high priests and priestesses of political correctness in the national media.

If I were advising Mr. Christie, I would advise him, at the expense of sounding trite, to let Christie be Christie.   If Mr. Trump’s popularity is any indication, there is a large contingent of the electorate who likes a guy who calls them as he sees them and who gives no quarter to political correctness and the incessant and endemic fear of offending.   Such an approach is in Mr. Christie’s DNA; why suppress such innate characteristics at the very time that the electorate is clamoring for fearless, if not reckless, honesty?  Given the public’s increasing aversion to pusillanimity, this is no time for Mr. Christie to adopt a Bushesque attitude of “Oh, I’m so very sorry; I’ll make sure to never adopt any real convictions for fear of your possibly not liking me.”

Further, those who are longtime fans and supporters of Mr. Christie like not so much his policies, which are not all that different from any run of the mill Republicans, but, rather, his style.   They like that he is direct, confident, and, at times, bordering on the rude when dealing with people who deserve to be treated that way.   His supporters like that Mr. Christie brooks no nonsense from those who can roll over a more conventional politician with cries of racism, sexism, homophobia, Islamophobia, big moneyism, or any number of imagined transgressions of the doctrines of all that is good and pure in the febrile minds of those who decide such things.   These people would be very disappointed were Mr. Christie to, as one of the few recent Western leaders with any sense of courage or commitment would put it, go wobbly on them.  And this is no time for Mr. Christie to abandon his base in an effort to become more conventional like, say, Mitt Romney or John McCain.

MAKING NICE WITH THE RAHM EMANUEL: BOBBY RUSH AND DANNY DAVIS ARE NO FOOLS

1/6/15

Yesterday, Congressmen Bobby Rush and Danny Davis appeared with Mayor Rahm Emanuel at an event kicking off an expansion of the Chicago Transit Authority’s (“CTA’s”) Second Chance program that provides jobs for ex-convicts.   The local press and other observers of the political scene took special note of the presence of Messrs. Rush and Davis, two of the city’s most powerful black leaders, with Mr. Emanuel as the Mayor dodges the slings and arrows being fired his way in the wake of the Laquan MacDonald shooting and its aftermaths.

Especially interesting were the comments made by Congressmen Rush and Davis when the topic of a possible Rahm resignation was brought up by the assembled media figures.   Mr. Rush, in rejecting the idea that a Rahm resignation might be good for the cause of police reform, stated

“If the (mayor’s office) became vacant, it would take another five years to even get remotely to the point where we are right now in terms of reforming the police department.”

Mr. Davis, in rejecting the notion that Mr. Emanuel might resign, opined

“I don’t think we’re going to see resignations.  When people are in a position to be fired, they get fired.  But when people are in positions where they get elected, if the electorate wants to change it, they’ve got to vote them out and vote somebody else in.”

It should not be at all surprising that neither Mr. Rush nor Mr. Davis wants to see Mr. Emanuel leave office.   Chicago politics is not dictated by ideology, or, contrary to popular belief, even by race or ethnicity.  Chicago politics is dictated by power and the money that results from acquiring and keeping power.   This makes Chicago different from just about any place else only in degree, but I digress.  Messrs. Rush and Davis have enjoyed the spoils that result from being integral parts of the Chicago political power structure.   Even since, and probably before, Mr. Rush left the Black Panthers to begin his ascent to the rarified regions of the Cook County Regular Democratic Organization’s power structure, he has enjoyed power, respect, and money from all corners of the city’s and, if the ability to overlook ethical transgressions is any indication, the country’s, power structure.   Under Richard M. Daley, Mr. Rush had the proverbial run of the place and that latitude has continued under Mr. Daley’s successor.   Why would Mr. Rush want to upset the apple cart at this stage?   He’s put a lot of time and effort into getting where he is and, at the age of 69, is probably not eager to start currying the dubious favor of whoever were to takes over in a crisis inspired coup of sorts.   Mr. Rush has been around long enough to know that his race will count for little if somehow a black politician should succeed a disgraced Rahm Emanuel and Mr. Rush’s chances of getting as good a deal as he has received from the city’s existing power structure are slim.

Just about the same could be said for Mr. Davis; he has been treated like royalty under the current regime and its predecessor and has very little incentive to take a chance on a neophyte.   But something else is at work in the case of the apparent Davis/Emanuel condominium:   Mr. Davis made the uncharacteristically foolish mistake of supporting Chuy Garcia for mayor in the last mayoral election.  So for Mr. Davis, his apparent game of nicey-nice with Mr. Emanuel involves some measure of atonement.   Mr. Davis knows that Mr. Emanuel isn’t going anywhere any time soon and thus getting back into the Mayor’s good graces is of paramount importance.   Mr. Davis’s support of Mr. Emanuel is, in all likelihood, a small part of the penance that will be expected of him.

There may be something else at work here, something of which I am not as sure as I am of the ability of the aging Messrs. Rush and Davis to ascertain the score around town.   Maybe the post McDonald outrage is more a creation of the media than a genuine movement.   The crowds at the demonstrations have been small, and usually exaggerated by the media, and their intensity, never that great in the first place, has been petering out as time has passed.  The typical black citizen is smarter than the media seem to think.  Yes, s/he is angry at the shooting of Mr. McDonald and other young black men by the Chicago police.  But s/he also realizes that the biggest problem is not the police shootings but the black on black crime that has ravaged his or her neighborhood.   S/he also notices that the “community leadership’s” outrage at this far larger problem has been disproportionately muted.   So maybe this rising tide of anger, or however the media portray it, at the Chicago Police Department and the Emanuel administration, is not as overwhelming as the largely white press would have us believe.  And old pros like Messrs. Davis and Rush are not about to jump on a bandwagon that is about to run out of gas.   Mr. Davis did that in the last election and, as I mentioned before, is still doing penance for this uncharacteristic lack of discernment.

Most of the opposition to Mr. Emanuel in the black community will come from those far removed from the power structure or from those who lack a fundamental understanding of how things work around this town and how loudly money and power, and the potential of acquiring more of both, speak to people.   One might see people who are comfortable within the power structure, like County Board President Toni Preckwinkle, openly oppose Mr. Emanuel because they might think that they could replace Mr. Emanuel as a result.   But the smart people among this crowd will, upon not much reflection at all, come to realize that bucking the power structure in Chicago is a fool’s game; 1983 was more than 30 years ago, the tide is weaker now, and the demographics are not as friendly as they were back then.   If such insiders, black, Hispanic, or white, really want to be Mr. Emanuel’s successor, the surer path to achieving that goal is to play ball with the entrenched.

See my two books, The Chairman, A Novel of Big City Politics and The Chairman’s Challenge, A Continuing Novel of Big City Politics, for further illumination on how things work in Chicago and Illinois politics. 

CHRIS CHRISTIE GETS “IT”; CAN HE GET THE NOMINATION?

1/5/16

In a speech yesterday at St. Anselm College in Manchester, New Hampshire, Chris Christie said

“I don’t believe (Trump, Cruz, and Carson voters) are merely blinded by a cult of personality, or that they have embraced values outside the mainstream.   Many of their criticisms of recent U.S. policy are legitimate, and should be taken more seriously.”

First, my smaller point:  Since when is it such a bad thing to be “outside the mainstream”?   Given where the mainstream has been leading for at least the last thirty or so years, why would one want to be caught up in that current to mediocrity, degeneracy, or worse?

Second, my larger point:  Mr. Christie clearly, to use a term so trite it could only have come sailing in on the mainstream, gets it.   That majority of Republican primary voters who are supporting the unconventional trio of Trump, Cruz, and Rubio are not delusional, benighted idiots caught up in a tide of gormless sycophancy.   (See my 12/26/15 post WHY TRUMP IS SO POPULAR WITH THE MIDDLE CLASS for further illumination on this point.)   Such voters have seen the results of policies generated by conventional politicians and their hangers-on in the think tank class and are appalled, disgusted, and fed up.   If government has worked at all for the last several decades, it hasn’t worked for them.   And these folks both vote and pay taxes.  Rather than being scorned or patronized (I’m giving Mr. Christie the benefit of the doubt in assuming that’s not what he is doing here; perhaps I do so to my regret, but I digress.), their concerns should be heeded.

So Chris Christie appears to understand what has escaped the cocoon crowd in Washington, D.C.; he “gets it.”  But can he get the GOP nomination?   Hear me out here.

First, the mainstream, conventional Republicans needs a champion.   Who are the mainstream’s choices at this juncture?

·         Jeb Bush, who can best be described as pathetic, at least as a campaigner.   Even if what we hear about Mr. Bush’s tenure in Florida being so terrific is true, he has absolutely no chance of winning the general election.  He is as exciting as oatmeal (Sorry, oatmeal.) and as seemingly as engaged as a Kardashian at a symposium on the 11^th Amendment. 

One more thing on Mr. Bush…How much have he and his minions spent on this campaign?   Is it $20 million?  Is it several times that if we consider the nominally independent PACs who have been backing this 21^st Century version of the Lusitania?   And how much support has Mr. Bush garnered?   And this guy sells himself as a dynamic manager of all things fiscal?   If this is how firm a handle Mr. Bush has on money management, his brother would have another serious challenger for the top spot in the “worst president in U.S. history” rankings were Jeb to somehow come to occupy the White House.

·         Marco Rubio, an inexperienced first term senator whose resume outside the confines of the public payroll consists of an adjunct professorship and two years heading a newly founded law firm while awaiting the next public sinecure for which he could run and who looks like he is 25 years old.  This makes him the perfect standard-bearer for a Party who complains that the current President was an inexperienced first term senator whose experience outside the confines of the public payroll consisted of an adjunct professorship and being a community organizer while awaiting the next public sinecure for which he could run and who looked like he was maybe in his late 20s before acquiring the presidential graying pate.

Given that cornucopia of choices, wouldn’t someone like Mr. Christie, who is most often criticized, rightly or wrongly, by the true believers for being too mainstream and conventional, appeal to the mainstream and conventional wing of the GOP?   The man has some experience running a state government and figuratively chasing down terrorists.   The man does not bear the burden of a toxic last name.   The man looks like a man in his early 50s.  The man has actually done a few things besides preen for the cameras.

What makes Mr. Christie especially appealing to the other wing of the party is that he was Donald Trump the candidate before there was Donald Trump the candidate.   It was Mr. Christie who was considered outspoken to a fault, who rarely if ever genuflected to the gods of political correctness, who called it as he saw it even if doing so would cause the paragons of propriety in the press to castigate him as rude or (Horrors!) insensitive.    In short, Mr. Christie was the guy who was perceived to do what he thought was right and didn’t give a damn if the “better people” didn’t like it.  If Mr. Trump had never entered this contest, it would be Mr. Christie who would be taking flak for being a boor in the minds of the keepers of the flame of political correctness.   If these traits of Donald Trump appeal to people, why wouldn’t these traits, long present in Mr. Christie, appeal to them as well?   And if voters who are supporting Mr. Trump finally tire of his more malodorous qualities, wouldn’t Mr. Christie be the logical guy to whom to gravitate?   One could argue that Ted Cruz is closer to Mr. Trump in policy, but do you honestly think that people support Mr. Trump because of his policies?   What policies?

So the mainstream, conventional Republicans could easily support Mr. Christie because, after all, he is one of them and their alternatives are presenting pretty slim pickings at this juncture.   Those who admire Mr. Trump for his brashness and his complete disregard for the political correctness that has so poisoned our society and its discourse could easily find the same qualities in Mr. Christie.   Doesn’t that make Mr. Christie a potent force in the race for the nomination?

Before you dismiss this argument by citing poll numbers, consider that we haven’t run one caucus or primary yet.   A strong position in the polls at this stage of earlier nominating contests meant little more than nothing.   A Trump loss in Iowa (See my 12/23/15 post TRUMP, THE“REVERSE BRADLEY EFFECT,” AND THE MAN’S UPCOMING LOSS IN IOWA for further insight into this point.), a stronger than expected showing by Mr. Christie in New Hampshire, a few more poorly thought out Trump comments, and the concession of Mr. Bush to the obvious could change things quickly.

I’m not predicting a Christie nomination.   I have placed bets on only three things politically so far….

·         A beef sandwich on Carly Fiorina being on the GOP ticket,

·         $1 to $10 on Mr. Trump becoming our next president, and, most recently,

·         a cheeseburger (I have to clarify the place; this could get too expensive for my tastes.) on Rahm Emanuel’s still occupying the Fifth Floor of Chicago’s City Hall on 12/31/16.

Those are more predictions than I would normally make and more than I would normally bet.  I am merely putting something out there for you to consider before the fun is killed way too prematurely by the fatuous, or at least ill-timed, decision that this will be a Trump/Clinton race in which Mrs. Clinton will easily prevail.