5/29/18
The Memorial Day weekend’s Chicago papers were peppered
with reports that there is talk among the cognoscenti that Mayor Rahm Emanuel may decide not to run for
a third term. Yours truly’s first
impulse was to dismiss such speculation out of hand; surely, Mr. Emanuel, a
glutton for power and, apparently, for punishment, will seek a third time. However, one doesn’t learn much by immediately
dismissing contrary ideas, so I took some time to ruminate on the idea of Mr.
Emanuel’s bowing out. It turns out that
if one performs sufficient contortions, one could conceivably come up with a
nearly credible case for Mr. Emanuel’s saying au revoir to this latest adventure in a career characterized by a
continuing concupiscence for power and fame.
If Mr. Emanuel were to bow out now, he could argue,
however implausibly, that he has turned around Chicago. He could contend that he has straightened
out the city’s finances, putting it on the path to fiscal rectitude. He could aver that his wise tutelage has
resulted in the city’s crime problem starting to abate. He could further argue that, due to his
attractiveness to the movers and shakers of corporate America, more companies
are relocating to Chicago, bringing jobs, tax revenues, and prestige to what one
suspects Mr. Emanuel considered a backwater before his arrival on the
scene. In short, Mr. Emanuel can argue
that his mission to bring enlightenment and wisdom to his home town has been
accomplished. Therefore, it is time to,
of course, spend more time with his family.
After an ever so brief hiatus, perhaps measured in days, from politics,
he can then resume his pursuit of his real goal, i.e., power at the national
level, perhaps beginning with a spot on the 2020 Democratic ticket.
Before one laughs at such a contention, consider that there
is an element of truth to each of these arguments. Chicago’s financial condition is indeed
better than that which prevailed when Mr. Emanuel deigned to return to govern
the town in which he was born.
Considering that the city was headed to financial hell on the express
train in 2011, this might not appear to be such a titanic accomplishment, but
at least the city is now on only the milk run to de facto, or maybe even de
jure, bankruptcy. Further, while crime
is still a huge problem, the morale of the police department is on at least a
post-Summerdale scandal low, and Chicago looks like something of a shooting gallery
compared to New York and L.A., reported crime is down in 2018 on
a year-over-year basis. Finally, some
big companies have relocated here, including such iconic American companies as McDonald’s. And,
as unlikely as it might be, there is still a chance that Amazon will relocate its second campus here. That would be an enormous feather in the cap
of a departing mayor trying to portray himself as a modern-day Pericles.
More importantly, Mr. Emanuel has access to perhaps the
greatest spin wizards in politics and Hollywood. They could take the thin gruel of the Mayor’s
accomplishments and whip it into a hearty stew of a tale of a conquering hero,
a guy who came, saw, and conquered. The
truth may be exaggerated, the story might strain credulity, but the story only
has to be good enough to convince a largely apathetic and low information voter
base that Mr. Emanuel, who untied the Gordian knot that was post-Richard II Chicago, is the man,
perhaps the only man, with the superpowers necessary to address the woes of a post-Trump America. Given the people the Mayor, his minions, and
his brother can access, this shouldn’t be that tall of an order to fill.
Further, consider that the admittedly tall tale of Rahm the Conqueror will only get more
difficult to tell four or eight years from now. The day of reckoning for Chicago has only
been delayed, largely, at least on the financial end, due to the admirable
efforts of Mr. Emanuel and his courage to make the tough political decisions
his predecessor refused to make. But the day of reckoning has only been delayed. Say what you will about Mr. Emanuel, but he
is not stupid. He can see that things
are only going to get worse in the city of Chicago. Perhaps he sees the wisdom of leaving now
when he is as close to the top as he is going to get regarding the stewardship
of what he calls his home town. Right
now, he and his PR people can spin this story to be a lot better than it really
is; after a few years, even all of Rahm’s horses and all of Rahm’s men might
not be able to put the story of Rahm’s saving Chicago back together again.
So, upon reflection, it might make sense for Mr. Emanuel,
who always has his eye on the next prize, to get out of town, take credit for
what he has accomplished and for what he can convince people he has accomplished,
let his successor take the blame for the city’s nearly inevitable demise, and
then argue, presumably with a straight face, that the city would still be
prospering had he not elected to step down from the job he loved. Does yours truly think this is what will
happen? No. I still think the Mayor will run again and,
at least at this juncture, that he will win a third term; you can’t beat
somebody with nobody, especially when somebody has access to the spondulicks
and the talent necessary to spin whatever tale he would like to spin. However, after long and serious thought about
the issue, I would be surprised, but not shocked, were Mr. Emanuel to suddenly be
seized with a suddenly irresistible impulse to spend more time with his family.
And what about that spot on the 2020 ticket? That is grist
for a later post.
See my two books, The Chairman, A Novel of
Big City Politics and The Chairman’s Challenge,
A Continuing Novel of Big City Politics, for further illumination on
how things work in Chicago and Illinois politics.
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