5/3/22
Even if the leaked Alito draft opinion striking down Roe
v. Wade and Planned Parenthood vs. Casey turns out to be the final
opinion (highly unlikely) or part of a process of deliberation that will
ultimately lead to those two decisions being struck down (more likely but far
from certain), those in favor of ready access to abortion should tone down
their vituperation and those who are opposed to abortion should moderate their
celebration. Nothing substantive is
going to change regarding the availability of abortion if Roe is overturned.
If Roe is overturned, decisions regarding the
availability, and the legality, of abortion will be in the hands of the states,
where they should have been all along.
Once in the hands of the states, it is quite clear that laws regarding
abortion will reflect the general consensus this country reached long ago on
abortion, i.e., that abortion should be legal but restricted. Nothing will change in that regard. Yes, the degree of restrictions will vary
from state to state, as it does now and as it should. Some states will ban abortion outright. Some of the more hysterical among those who
insist on wider availability of abortion are predicting that half the states
will outlaw abortion. Some cooler heads
in both camps are predicting that the number of such states will be in the teens. Yours truly thinks that the number will be
more like ten, or even fewer. Regardless of their number, states’ outlawing
abortion will present problems for women who live in such states and wish to
terminate their pregnancies. Even now, though,
organizations and people strongly in favor of keeping abortion legal and widely
available are making, and, in some states, executing plans to provide transport
to women who cannot obtain abortions in their state of residence. Having to provide such services will provide
those in favor of readily available abortion a chance to put their proverbial money
where their mouths are, and one should have little doubt that such plans will come
to fruition and thus that women anywhere in this country who want abortions in
the still hypothetical post-Roe era will be able to terminate their
pregnancies with only relatively minor degrees of inconvenience. Talk of “back-alley abortions” and a “return
to the days of the coat-hanger” is so much hyper-ventilation.
What is even sillier, but at least as predictable, is
politicians grandstanding on the issue, with the likes of Illinois Governor J.B.
Pritzker of and Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot piously proclaiming
that abortion will remain legal and readily available even if Roe is
overturned. They might as well
proclaim that water will remain wet. Does
anybody who is not barren of grey matter and/or overcome by the alarmism of the
moment think for even three seconds that, in a post-Roe world, abortion will
be outlawed in Illinois? Or, for that
matter, in New York, California, New Jersey, Connecticut, Washington, Oregon, et.
multa al.? But the facts, and/or or
reasoned conclusions, don’t matter when emotions overrule intellect, which
seems to be happening with increasing frequency in this country on matters far
beyond abortion rights, but I digress. Such
emoting rather than thinking is why, by the way, an overturning of Roe
will turn out to be a big positive politically for the Democrats in 2022 and
2024. Whether it will be enough for them to hold onto
Congress and the White House is grist for a later mill, but an overturned Roe
will be a positive for the Dems. So
look for the crocodile tears in the eyes of Democratic pols wailing and gnashing
their teeth in the wake of this SCOTUS leak.
One more thing…
I have been around long enough to have experienced many “world-changing”
developments that don’t change the world much at all. Overturning of Roe, if it happens,
will turn out to be one of them.
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