TONI PRECKWINKLE IS THE NEXT MAYOR OF CHICAGO, UNLESS…

9/22/18

When Mayor Rahm Emanuel announced he would not be immolating himself on the pyre of Chicago’s imminent financial conflagration by seeking a third term (RAHM EMANUEL TAKES A POWDER; YOURS TRULY IS SURPRISED, BUT NOT SHOCKED, 9/4/18) on the Fifth Floor, my first thought was not about potential successors.   But, like everybody else, I quickly started filling out my mayoral bracket and my initial impression was that Congressman Luis Gutierrez would have to be considered Mr. Emanuel’s most likely successor.   Mr. Gutierrez has been around Chicago politics a long time, can raise a lot of money, has a national profile, is the most politically prominent of an ethnic group, very broadly defined, that is clearly in ascendancy in the city of Chicago, and has made a lot of friends and not enough enemies.   But now that Mr. Gutierrez has kept himself out of the race, and County Board President Toni Preckwinkle has put herself into the race, it is clear that Ms. Preckwinkle will be the next mayor of Chicago.    She has been around city government and politics for a long time, has what passes for a record of accomplishment in local, or any, for that matter, politics, can raise scads of money, has a lot of union support, is at least palatable to the business community, should carry the black vote overwhelmingly, still endears herself to what was once called the liberal lakefront crowd, and has extensive, nearly embarrassing, support in the media.   As a consequence of all the aforementioned, Ms. Preckwinkle is far and away the most visible and experienced candidate in the race.   She has, in abundance, that necessary political skill of being able to pull the wool over people’s eyes, to make people think she’s something she’s not; she even managed, early in her reign as County Board chairman, to bamboozle at least one conservative columnist around town into thinking she was “sensible.”

Sure, Toni Preckwinkle has some negatives, besides having to look up the spelling of her name every time one wants to write it, a trait she shares, by the way, with the two “non-Gary”s in the race.   The most salient of these is the disastrous “sugar tax” and a disposition that is not most accurately described as sunny.   But the “sugar tax” got shot down not by opposition in the city as much as by opposition in suburban Cook, and the revolt against it was led by board members, primarily Republicans, who represented the suburbs.   And since when has raising taxes and a dour disposition hurt the prospects of any otherwise skilled holder of or aspirant to the position of mayor of Chicago?   Look at Chicago’s last two mayors.  But I digress.   It sure looks like Ms. Preckwinkle will be comfortably ensconced on the Fifth Floor on the other side of her current building by next Spring.

But what about Jesus “Chuy” Garcia?   Yours truly has long contended that the only people who voted for Mr. Garcia because he was Mr. Garcia were himself, his wife, and other family members.   Mr. Garcia was able to force Mr. Emanuel into a run-off in 2015 not because of who he was but, rather, because of who he was not, i.e., Rahm Emanuel.   This is not to say that Mr. Garcia is a bad guy; I don’t know him and have never met him, but friends who know Mr. Garcia and whose opinion I respect have plenty of good things to say about him.   He represents the progressive movement quite well.   But his visibility and record of accomplishment were, if not sparse, not sufficiently impressive to have made him an obvious candidate for mayor.  Remember that he was the third stringer in that race.  He was persuaded to run only after Ms. Preckwinkle and Chicago Teachers’ Union President Karen Lewis decided, the latter for medical reasons, not to challenge Mr. Emanuel.   Given how well Mr. Garcia did despite starting late and effectively subbing for better known challengers, it is not at all unreasonable to think that Ms. Preckwinkle, or even Ms. Lewis, may have beaten Mr. Emanuel in 2015 had the latter been more healthy or the former been more courageous.   But I digress.

Things have changed for Mr. Garcia in the last four years.   He has certainly become more prominent by virtue of his first-round success in 2015.   He has become something of a spokesman for progressive politics, and especially for progressive Latino politics, in Chicago and somewhat beyond.  That growing prominence has landed him what should be a coronation next month for a lifetime job in Congress.  He also has few enemies; even those who oppose his politics have little, if anything, bad to say about the guy.   So I might be wrong; the now bigger named Chuy Garcia, and the rapid ascendance of his very broadly defined ethnic group (Note that Mr. Gutierrez is Puerto Rican while Mr. Garcia is Mexican.  Political observers tend to lump both into the category of “Latino” or “Hispanic” politicians.   Such observers may be doing so at their peril, but, that is grist for another mill.) could make him a viable challenger to Ms. Preckwinkle and set up a nearly thrilling run-off in April.   But yours truly doubts it.   Only Mr. Gutierrez has the name and support to challenge Ms. Preckwinkle. 

How about the other declared, interested, or otherwise potential, candidates?   Briefly…

State Comptroller Susana Mendoza has a shot at the mayor’s office if Mr. Garcia somehow stays out.   But Mr. Garcia’s staying out is highly improbable and, with Mr. Garcia in the race, these two will be splitting the Hispanic, and maybe, the progressive, vote, resulting in both candidates’ ships’ sinking.   Maybe a deal could be made to run one strong Hispanic candidate who could present himself or herself as the progressive alternative to the “machine” (The very word is laughable in today’s Chicago politics, but that, too, is grist for another mill and, by the way, for my books, The Chairman, A Novel of Big City Politics and The Chairman’s Challenge, A Continuing Novel of Big City Politics) Toni Preckwinkle.   But a deal between Ms. Mendoza and Mr. Garcia is even more unlikely than Mr. Garcia not running.    So not this time for Susan Mendoza.

Gery Chico and Bill Daley, despite the denials of both, are going after what has to be minuscule share of the electorate…those who yearn and pine for the days when Richard M. Daley was mayor.    Paul Vallas’s raison d’etre is similar (RAHM EMANUEL TO GOD:   PLEASE, LORD, IF I HAVE TO GO TO A RUN-OFF, LET IT BE AGAINST RICHARD M. DALEY, ER, SORRY…PAUL VALLAS, 5/22/18) , though one could logically and legitimately argue that his candidacy is slightly more nuanced.   Richard J. Daley left a marvelous legacy, real or perceived, of effective government and political dominance.   Richard M. Daley did not.   Enough said for Messrs. Chico, Daley, and Vallas.

If residents of suburban Cook could vote in this election, Garry McCarthy could have a chance.   If residents of the entire six county area could vote, Mr. McCarthy could win.   But, unfortunately for Mr. McCarthy, only current Chicagoans, not former Chicagoans, can vote in Chicago mayoral elections. 

Ms. Preckwinkle has taken any air out of the sails that may have provided forward propulsion to the campaign of Cook County Courts Clerk Dorothy Brown, who yours truly once thought had a chance at getting into the run-off even when Mr. Emanuel was still in the race.  (DOROTHY BROWN MAY BE IN THE MONEY, BUT THIS IS RIDICULOUS, 8/28/18)

The rest of the candidates?   Why bother?  Time is valuable.

With the expected dominance of Ms. Preckwinkle, this race will not be the political equivalent of a Super Bowl going into overtime that many had anticipated.   That doesn’t mean, however, that it won’t be entertaining.   So expect more posts from yours truly as the battle progresses.

See my two books, The Chairman, A Novel of Big City Politics and The Chairman’s Challenge, A Continuing Novel of Big City Politics, for further illumination on how things work, or used to work, in Chicago and Illinois politics. 

HERE’S A TIP FOR THE MASTERS OF THE UNIVERSE: SIT IN ON A SECOND GRADE ARITHMETIC CLASS

9/22/18

I wrote the following letter to the Wall Street Journal last month in response to an article in one of those cutesy-pie weekend sections about a restauranteur who thinks tipping is a bad idea.   Not surprisingly for a number of reasons, the paper didn’t run it, but I thought my readers would enjoy it.   Another reason I am running it is to burnish this blog’s frequent characterization as “eclectic.”

8/25/18

Danny Meyer, the restauranteur behind Shake Shack and the Gramercy Tavern, is advocating the elimination of the centuries old custom of tipping wait staff at his, and presumably all, restaurants.   (“A Restaurant King Fights a Lonely War on Tips,” Exchange, 8/25-8/26/18)   Among the reasons that Mr. Meyer provides for eliminating a practice that has worked well for so many years is that tipping “forced diners to end every meal with a math test.”

At Shake Shack, a hamburger costs what an entire three course meal costs at the local diner my family frequents.   At Gramercy Tavern, a meal for four can easily exceed a typical family’s mortgage payment.   Both of Mr. Meyer’s establishments, one can thus easily conclude, are favorites of New York’s most sophisticated, most highly paid luminaries, including the masters of the universe who, by some strange twist of fate, find themselves in charge of the nation’s finances.  These geniuses consider calculating 20% of, say, $500 at Gramercy Tavern, a “math test”?   Apparently so, because, according to the Journal article “Many diners seemed thrilled to stop calculating tips…”   Maybe it would be easier for these whiz kids if someone explained that one can calculate 20% by taking one tenth of a number and doubling the result, but, then again, maybe not…math is so hard.

Don’t worry, America; your money is in the hands of those who consider calculating simple percentages a “math test.” 

RAHM EMANUEL TAKES A POWDER; YOURS TRULY IS SURPRISED, BUT NOT SHOCKED

9/4/18

Some people have been kind enough to say that yours truly predicted what became today’s announcement by Rahm Emanuel that he will not seek re-election as Mayor of Chicago.   These observers are too kind; I didn’t call this development in 5/29/18’s RAHM EMANUEL WILL NOT RUN AGAIN?   YOU CAN’T BE SERIOUS.  CAN YOU?.   In fact, I went so far as to say in that piece, and several times since, that I didn’t think that Rahm would drop out.   But I did outline both a plausible scenario for Mr. Emanuel’s dropping out and a saleable spin in the event he decided to take such a pass, so, yes, I’ll take credit for that and build upon those thoughts in this post.

A caution:   We can’t get into the heads of others.  We can only make guesses regarding people’s motivations from what we know of them and, like most of you, all my knowledge of Rahm Emanuel comes from what I read in the papers.   Any pronouncements I, or anybody, makes about Mr. Emanuel’s motivations or future must be tempered by this caveat.   Now for some fun.   

First, and I hope this doesn’t come as a revelation to any of my readers, Rahm Emanuel is not finished with politics.   He may take a break to make some more money selling his influence, as a lot of far less talented politicians have done and continue to do, but he is not going to stay away from the game.   He couldn’t if he wanted to and there is no reason to think he wants to.   Besides, after a while, it becomes difficult to sell influence one no longer has, so even if Mr. Emanuel wanted only to cash in, he has to keep the larder stocked, if you will, by staying at least very close to the game and, in all likelihood, completely re-immersing himself in the game.  

Second, as I said back in May, becoming mayor of Chicago was never Mr. Emanuel’s ultimate goal.  He has always had his eye on Washington and one suspects it stays there.   Yours truly has long held that Mr. Emanuel took his current job in the belief that turning around the, er, challenge Chicago had become under his predecessor would enable him to get on the Democratic ticket by acclamation.  Further, Mr. Emanuel actually had the ego to believe that he, and perhaps only he, could turn around Chicago.   It may have become apparent that this goal is so daunting that it defies even the considerable talents of the wily and insightful Rahm Emanuel.   While he can still create a plausible story of progress in his rescue mission to this once great city, solving its problems, or even arresting its decline, is impossible.   But bear in mind that, while Mr. Emanuel clearly has some affection for his city and certainly wishes the best for it, what really matters to a career politician like Mr. Emanuel is his political future and viability.   Mr. Emanuel can tell a decent story about his valiant efforts in Chicago, especially with the money and the spinmeisters he has at his disposal, so, from his perspective, all is good.   What matters to one’s political viability is not success itself but convincing enough voters of one’s success.  As I said in May, Mr. Emanuel can leave with a good story, preserving and even enhancing his chances at moving up the political ladder.   Of course, if he were a real Chicagoan, he would realize that there is nowhere up the ladder to go once one has won the only job that really matters to a pol in our fair city.    Did Richard J. Daley want to be president?   What?   And take a demotion?   But I digress.

Third, the thing that really scares me about Mr. Emanuel’s packing it in is the implications of his leaving if I am at all right in the suppositions outlined in the last paragraph.   Has Mr. Emanuel, a smart and insightful guy, admitted to himself, and maybe very privately to a few close friends, that Chicago is beyond redemption?   Has he decided that staying around will only impair his political future because things can only get worse in Chicago?   Again, to a politician, what really matters is himself or he wouldn’t be in the business he’s in.   Mr. Emanuel is not going to throw himself on a Didonian pyre in order to save the city of Chicago.   If he thinks there’s nowhere to go but down for Chicago and hence has decided to board a figurative lifeboat, yours truly genuinely fears for the future of his home town.

Fourth, notice that I have not mentioned the Laquan McDonald case.   I don’t think that this sad chapter in Chicago history is nearly the political issue those comfortably ensconced in the city’s newsrooms think it is and I hence don’t think that the case had much, if anything, to do with Mr. Emanuel’s decision.   I still think that Mr. Emanuel would have won, and quite possibly in the first round, had he elected to run.  It was not the fear of losing, but, rather, the consequences of winning, outlined the last two paragraphs, that led to Rahm Emanuel’s decision.

Fifth, what is Mr. Emanuel’s next step?   Given his lack of the likeability factor, perhaps unelected political office, like a Cabinet position, another stint as presidential chief of staff, or some kingmaker/political financier position at some lobbying firm in Washington, a kind of modern day Clark Clifford role, is in the Mayor’s sights.   But do you really think that Mr. Emanuel believes he’s unlikeable?   We are usually the last to see the, er, qualities that others see in us, and one suspects that Mr. Emanuel thinks he has no problem at all with likeability and hence will not let such considerations keep him away from another attempt at elected office.   To that end, and, again, this is pure speculation, yours truly thinks he has his eye on the 2020 Democratic ticket.   Surely, he is smart enough to know that the Dems seem intent on running to the left in two years; hence, the top of the ticket will feature an Elizabeth Warren type.   The ticket will need balance, and who better to provide that balance than uber-moderate Rahm Emanuel?    Not only that, but remember that the spin that Mr. Emanuel saved Chicago will become imbedded in the American psyche by that time and he will be able to boast the administrative experience to balance and enhance the legislative experience of, say, Senator Warren or Senator Kirsten Gillibrand at the top of the ticket.   It makes sense to yours truly and should make sense to a guy, such as Mr. Emanuel, who knows politics far more thoroughly and intimately than do I.  

Sixth, what does this do to the mayoral race back in Chicago?   There is grist here for plenty of future posts, so at this time I will limit myself to a few observations.    First, this is not a gift to those unnotables who are already in the race.   Already, they are sounding scared at the prospect of more attractive candidates, who wisely passed on a run at Mr. Emanuel, entering the race.   Second, the ideal candidate would be a viable Hispanic candidate given the power of that voting bloc and the clear direction of the city’s future and, currently, there is no such candidate in the race.   That candidate probably is not Alderman Ricardo Munoz (22^nd), who is already talking about jumping into the race.   But it could be.   What, by the way, is Luis Gutierrez, who is the biggest Hispanic name in Chicago politics, is more than decently regarded in the black community, and is soon to be out of a job, thinking right now?    Third, let’s see how things develop in the next few days or weeks; this is going to be even more fun if such a thing is possible.

See my two books, The Chairman, A Novel of Big City Politics and The Chairman’s Challenge, A Continuing Novel of Big City Politics, for further illumination on how things work in Chicago and Illinois politics.