RAHM EMANUEL TAKES A POWDER; YOURS TRULY IS SURPRISED, BUT NOT SHOCKED

9/4/18

Some people have been kind enough to say that yours truly predicted what became today’s announcement by Rahm Emanuel that he will not seek re-election as Mayor of Chicago.   These observers are too kind; I didn’t call this development in 5/29/18’s RAHM EMANUEL WILL NOT RUN AGAIN?   YOU CAN’T BE SERIOUS.  CAN YOU?.   In fact, I went so far as to say in that piece, and several times since, that I didn’t think that Rahm would drop out.   But I did outline both a plausible scenario for Mr. Emanuel’s dropping out and a saleable spin in the event he decided to take such a pass, so, yes, I’ll take credit for that and build upon those thoughts in this post.

A caution:   We can’t get into the heads of others.  We can only make guesses regarding people’s motivations from what we know of them and, like most of you, all my knowledge of Rahm Emanuel comes from what I read in the papers.   Any pronouncements I, or anybody, makes about Mr. Emanuel’s motivations or future must be tempered by this caveat.   Now for some fun.   

First, and I hope this doesn’t come as a revelation to any of my readers, Rahm Emanuel is not finished with politics.   He may take a break to make some more money selling his influence, as a lot of far less talented politicians have done and continue to do, but he is not going to stay away from the game.   He couldn’t if he wanted to and there is no reason to think he wants to.   Besides, after a while, it becomes difficult to sell influence one no longer has, so even if Mr. Emanuel wanted only to cash in, he has to keep the larder stocked, if you will, by staying at least very close to the game and, in all likelihood, completely re-immersing himself in the game.  

Second, as I said back in May, becoming mayor of Chicago was never Mr. Emanuel’s ultimate goal.  He has always had his eye on Washington and one suspects it stays there.   Yours truly has long held that Mr. Emanuel took his current job in the belief that turning around the, er, challenge Chicago had become under his predecessor would enable him to get on the Democratic ticket by acclamation.  Further, Mr. Emanuel actually had the ego to believe that he, and perhaps only he, could turn around Chicago.   It may have become apparent that this goal is so daunting that it defies even the considerable talents of the wily and insightful Rahm Emanuel.   While he can still create a plausible story of progress in his rescue mission to this once great city, solving its problems, or even arresting its decline, is impossible.   But bear in mind that, while Mr. Emanuel clearly has some affection for his city and certainly wishes the best for it, what really matters to a career politician like Mr. Emanuel is his political future and viability.   Mr. Emanuel can tell a decent story about his valiant efforts in Chicago, especially with the money and the spinmeisters he has at his disposal, so, from his perspective, all is good.   What matters to one’s political viability is not success itself but convincing enough voters of one’s success.  As I said in May, Mr. Emanuel can leave with a good story, preserving and even enhancing his chances at moving up the political ladder.   Of course, if he were a real Chicagoan, he would realize that there is nowhere up the ladder to go once one has won the only job that really matters to a pol in our fair city.    Did Richard J. Daley want to be president?   What?   And take a demotion?   But I digress.

Third, the thing that really scares me about Mr. Emanuel’s packing it in is the implications of his leaving if I am at all right in the suppositions outlined in the last paragraph.   Has Mr. Emanuel, a smart and insightful guy, admitted to himself, and maybe very privately to a few close friends, that Chicago is beyond redemption?   Has he decided that staying around will only impair his political future because things can only get worse in Chicago?   Again, to a politician, what really matters is himself or he wouldn’t be in the business he’s in.   Mr. Emanuel is not going to throw himself on a Didonian pyre in order to save the city of Chicago.   If he thinks there’s nowhere to go but down for Chicago and hence has decided to board a figurative lifeboat, yours truly genuinely fears for the future of his home town.

Fourth, notice that I have not mentioned the Laquan McDonald case.   I don’t think that this sad chapter in Chicago history is nearly the political issue those comfortably ensconced in the city’s newsrooms think it is and I hence don’t think that the case had much, if anything, to do with Mr. Emanuel’s decision.   I still think that Mr. Emanuel would have won, and quite possibly in the first round, had he elected to run.  It was not the fear of losing, but, rather, the consequences of winning, outlined the last two paragraphs, that led to Rahm Emanuel’s decision.

Fifth, what is Mr. Emanuel’s next step?   Given his lack of the likeability factor, perhaps unelected political office, like a Cabinet position, another stint as presidential chief of staff, or some kingmaker/political financier position at some lobbying firm in Washington, a kind of modern day Clark Clifford role, is in the Mayor’s sights.   But do you really think that Mr. Emanuel believes he’s unlikeable?   We are usually the last to see the, er, qualities that others see in us, and one suspects that Mr. Emanuel thinks he has no problem at all with likeability and hence will not let such considerations keep him away from another attempt at elected office.   To that end, and, again, this is pure speculation, yours truly thinks he has his eye on the 2020 Democratic ticket.   Surely, he is smart enough to know that the Dems seem intent on running to the left in two years; hence, the top of the ticket will feature an Elizabeth Warren type.   The ticket will need balance, and who better to provide that balance than uber-moderate Rahm Emanuel?    Not only that, but remember that the spin that Mr. Emanuel saved Chicago will become imbedded in the American psyche by that time and he will be able to boast the administrative experience to balance and enhance the legislative experience of, say, Senator Warren or Senator Kirsten Gillibrand at the top of the ticket.   It makes sense to yours truly and should make sense to a guy, such as Mr. Emanuel, who knows politics far more thoroughly and intimately than do I.  

Sixth, what does this do to the mayoral race back in Chicago?   There is grist here for plenty of future posts, so at this time I will limit myself to a few observations.    First, this is not a gift to those unnotables who are already in the race.   Already, they are sounding scared at the prospect of more attractive candidates, who wisely passed on a run at Mr. Emanuel, entering the race.   Second, the ideal candidate would be a viable Hispanic candidate given the power of that voting bloc and the clear direction of the city’s future and, currently, there is no such candidate in the race.   That candidate probably is not Alderman Ricardo Munoz (22^nd), who is already talking about jumping into the race.   But it could be.   What, by the way, is Luis Gutierrez, who is the biggest Hispanic name in Chicago politics, is more than decently regarded in the black community, and is soon to be out of a job, thinking right now?    Third, let’s see how things develop in the next few days or weeks; this is going to be even more fun if such a thing is possible.

See my two books, The Chairman, A Novel of Big City Politics and The Chairman’s Challenge, A Continuing Novel of Big City Politics, for further illumination on how things work in Chicago and Illinois politics.